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Australian Rice Production: A Detailed Report (2020–2025) with Future Projections
Executive Summary
Rice production in Australia, primarily concentrated in the Riverina region of New South Wales (NSW) and parts of Victoria, is a highly efficient industry known for its world-leading water-use efficiency and high yields.
Over the past five years (2020–2025), the industry has experienced significant fluctuations driven by water availability, weather conditions, global market dynamics, and technological advancements.
After recovering from severe drought conditions in 2018–2019, production volumes surged due to favourable rainfall and high water allocations, peaking in 2022–2023, but faced challenges from wet conditions and declining export prices.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of rice production trends from 2020 to 2025, including production volumes, yields, economic contributions, and key drivers, alongside projections for future production through 2035.
1. Overview of Australian Rice Production
Australian rice production is centred in the Murray and Murrumbidgee valleys, where heavy soils and irrigation infrastructure support high-yielding Japonica rice varieties.
The industry, comprising approximately 1,500–2,000 family-operated farms, produces primarily medium- and short-grain rice, with some long-grain varieties like Langi.
About 80–85% of production is exported to markets such as the Middle East, Japan, and the Pacific Islands, with the remainder serving domestic demand.
The industry is managed by Rice growers Limited (Sun Rice), which handles processing and marketing, though deregulation in 2024–2025 is set to open export markets for northern NSW growers.
Key characteristics include:
• Water Efficiency: Australian rice growers use 50% less water per ton than the global average, achieving 1.2–1.5 tons per megaliter (t/ML).
• High Yields: Average yields are among the highest globally, ranging from 9.8 to 11 tons per hectare (t/ha).
• Environmental Management: Strict regulations and practices like laser-guided land levelling enhance sustainability.
2. Rice Production Trends (2020–2025)
2.1 Production Volumes
Rice production in Australia is heavily dependent on water availability, which is influenced by rainfall, irrigation allocations, and climatic events like La Niña and El Niño.
The following outlines production volumes over the past five years, based on available data: • 2020–2021 (Financial Year 2021): • Volume: Approximately 600,000–800,000 tons, recovering from drought-constrained years (2018–2019).• Context: Above-average rainfall and improved water allocations in the Murray-Darling Basin post-drought enabled a significant rebound. Industry revenue grew sharply, supported by an 800% increase in harvested area compared to drought years.• Gross Value of Production (GVP): Estimated at $566 million, reflecting a 673% increase from the previous year due to higher volumes and elevated prices. • 2021–2022 (Financial Year 2022): • Volume: Reached approximately 700,000 tons, with production benefiting from continued high water allocations and favourable La Niña conditions.• Context: Flooding in NSW and Queensland disrupted some winter crops, but summer crops like rice benefited from ample irrigation water. Pool prices hit a record $461/ton due to global supply constraints, particularly in California, a key competitor.• GVP: Estimated at $219 million, supported by high export prices and a 549% increase in export value ($225 million) compared to the drought-affected 2019–2020. • 2022–2023 (Financial Year 2023): • Volume: Estimated at 650,000 tons, a 26% increase year-on-year but 17% below 2021–2022 levels due to reduced planting area.• Context: Back-to-back La Niña events brought cool, wet conditions, delaying sowing by three weeks and reducing planted area to 51,000 hectares (down 17%). Despite challenges, high water allocations (100% in the Murray Valley, 67–100% in Murrumbidgee) supported production. Global rice production remained stable at 513 million tons, but Australian prices were pressured by increased California supply forecasts.• GVP: Declined modestly to $219 million due to lower volumes and an 8.8% drop in pool prices ($390–$450/ton). • 2023–2024 (Financial Year 2024): • Volume: Estimated at 622,000 tons, with a harvested area of 57,000 hectares (up 9.9% from 2023).• Context: Continued high water availability and improved farming methods sustained production. Yields increased by 8.8% to 10 t/ha, though export prices fell 10.8% to $953/ton due to increased global supply, particularly from California’s 76% production recovery.• GVP: Rose to $566 million, driven by higher volumes and domestic demand, with the market value reaching $396 million.
• 2024–2025 (Financial Year 2025): • Volume: Forecasted to decrease to 518,000 tons, a 16.7% drop from 2024.• Context: Reduced yields (forecasted at 9.8 t/ha) and potential drier conditions due to El Niño may constrain planting. Export prices are expected to face further pressure from global supply increases, though India’s non-basmati rice export ban may provide some price support. 2.2 Yields Australian rice yields are among the highest globally, averaging 9.8–11 t/ha over the period, compared to the global average of 4–5 t/ha. Key trends include: • 2021–2022: Peak yield of 11 t/ha, driven by favourable conditions and advanced varieties like Reiziq and Sherpa.• 2023–2024: Yield stabilized at 10 t/ha, with an 8.8% increase in 2024 due to improved field management and technology adoption.• 2024–2025: Forecasted to decline slightly to 9.8 t/ha, reflecting potential water constraints and climatic variability. 2.3 Economic Contributions • Revenue Growth: Industry revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.9% from 2019–2024, reaching $268.7 million in 2024, driven by post-drought recovery and high prices.• Export Market: Exports accounted for 80–85% of production, valued at $225 million in 2022–2023, though volumes lagged the 10-year average by 34%.• Domestic Market: Domestic consumption surged 33% to 614,000 tons in 2024, reflecting cultural diversity and demand for rice-based dishes.• Challenges: Rising input costs (e.g., fertilizers due to the Ukraine conflict) and high global shipping rates (up 273% in 2020–2021) pressured margins. 2.4 Key Drivers • Water Availability: High water allocations in 2021–2023 (e.g., 100% in Murray Valley) enabled production surges, while drought years (2018–2019) saw near-zero output.• Weather Patterns: La Niña (2021–2023) supported production but caused sowing delays, while El Niño forecasts for 2024–2025 may reduce water availability.• Global Competition: California’s production constraints (down 31–41% in 2022–2023) boosted Australian prices, but its 76% recovery in 2023–2024 pressured prices downward.• Technology and Innovation: The Rice check program, laser levelling, and new varieties improved yields and water efficiency. Research into “climate-smart” dryland rice in northern NSW aims to reduce water use and emissions.
3. Future Projections (2025–2035)3.1 Production Volume Forecasts • Short-Term (2025–2026):• Production is forecasted to decline to 518,000 tons in 2025 due to lower yields (9.8 t/ha) and potential El Niño-induced water constraints.• The AgriFutures Rice Program aims to achieve a water productivity target of 1.5 t/ML by 2026, which could stabilise output if met. • Medium-Term (2026–2030):• Production is expected to stabilize at 600,000–800,000 tons annually, assuming average water allocations and continued adoption of water-efficient practices.• Deregulation of export markets from July 2025 may boost northern NSW production, particularly for dryland rice, though Riverina remains dominant. • Long-Term (2030–2035):• Market volume is projected to reach 700,000 tons by 2035, with a market value of $504 million (CAGR of 2.2% from 2024).• Growth will depend on closing yield gaps, adopting climate-smart varieties, and managing climate risks like droughts and floods. 3.2 Yield Projections • Yields are expected to remain high at 9.8–10.5 t/ha, supported by ongoing breeding programs (e.g., Rice Breeding Australia Ltd.) and precision farming.• Dryland rice varieties, developed in northern NSW, could reduce irrigation dependency, potentially stabilizing yields in water-scarce years. 3.3 Economic Outlook • Market Growth: The rice market is projected to grow steadily, driven by domestic demand (forecasted at 614,000–700,000 tons) and export opportunities in premium markets.• Price Trends: Export prices may face downward pressure (e.g., $953/ton in 2024, down 10.8%) due to global supply increases, but India’s export bans could provide support.• Deregulation Impact: Ending Sun Rice’s export monopoly in 2025 could increase competition and innovation, potentially boosting export volumes but challenging smaller growers. 3.4 Challenges and Opportunities • Challenges:• Climate Change: Increased frequency of droughts, floods, and pests may disrupt production.• Water Constraints: Dependence on irrigation makes the industry vulnerable to allocation cuts.• Input Costs: Rising fertilizer and energy costs could squeeze margins.• Opportunities:• Climate-Smart Rice: Dryland and low-carbon varieties could reduce environmental impact and appeal to eco-conscious markets.• Research Investment: The AgriFutures Rice Program and Rice Breeding Australia’s new facilities in the Riverina will enhance varietal development.• Market Diversification: Deregulation and niche products (e.g., black rice with high nutritional value) could open new export markets. 4. Conclusion Australian rice production has shown resilience over the past five years, recovering from drought to achieve strong volumes (622,000 tons in 2024) and high yields (10 t/ha). However, challenges like variable weather, global competition, and rising costs have led to fluctuations, with a forecasted decline to 518,000 tons in 2025. Looking forward, the industry is poised for steady growth, potentially reaching 700,000 tons by 2035, driven by technological advancements, deregulation, and sustainable practices. To maintain competitiveness, continued investment in research, water-efficient technologies, and climate-smart varieties will be critical. References • AgriFutures Australia, Rice Program RD&E Plan 2021–26• NSW Department of Primary Industries, Rice Production Data• Statista, Australia Rice Production Volume (2024–2025)• NSW DPI, Rice Market and Production Insights• IndexBox, Australia’s Rice Market Forecast to 2035• SunRice, About Rice Production• DAFF, Rice Farms in the Murray-Darling Basin• Statista, Australia Rice Yield (2010–2024)• IBISWorld, Rice Growing in Australia (2014–2029)• DAFF, Australian Rice Industry Overview• Australian Bureau of Statistics, Agricultural Commodities 2021–22• AgriFutures Australia, Rice Industry Overview• Southern Cross University, Climate-Smart Rice Research
The following outlines production volumes over the past five years, based on available data: • 2020–2021 (Financial Year 2021): • Volume: Approximately 600,000–800,000 tons, recovering from drought-constrained years (2018–2019).• Context: Above-average rainfall and improved water allocations in the Murray-Darling Basin post-drought enabled a significant rebound. Industry revenue grew sharply, supported by an 800% increase in harvested area compared to drought years.• Gross Value of Production (GVP): Estimated at $566 million, reflecting a 673% increase from the previous year due to higher volumes and elevated prices. • 2021–2022 (Financial Year 2022): • Volume: Reached approximately 700,000 tons, with production benefiting from continued high water allocations and favourable La Niña conditions.• Context: Flooding in NSW and Queensland disrupted some winter crops, but summer crops like rice benefited from ample irrigation water. Pool prices hit a record $461/ton due to global supply constraints, particularly in California, a key competitor.• GVP: Estimated at $219 million, supported by high export prices and a 549% increase in export value ($225 million) compared to the drought-affected 2019–2020. • 2022–2023 (Financial Year 2023): • Volume: Estimated at 650,000 tons, a 26% increase year-on-year but 17% below 2021–2022 levels due to reduced planting area.• Context: Back-to-back La Niña events brought cool, wet conditions, delaying sowing by three weeks and reducing planted area to 51,000 hectares (down 17%). Despite challenges, high water allocations (100% in the Murray Valley, 67–100% in Murrumbidgee) supported production. Global rice production remained stable at 513 million tons, but Australian prices were pressured by increased California supply forecasts.• GVP: Declined modestly to $219 million due to lower volumes and an 8.8% drop in pool prices ($390–$450/ton). • 2023–2024 (Financial Year 2024): • Volume: Estimated at 622,000 tons, with a harvested area of 57,000 hectares (up 9.9% from 2023).• Context: Continued high water availability and improved farming methods sustained production. Yields increased by 8.8% to 10 t/ha, though export prices fell 10.8% to $953/ton due to increased global supply, particularly from California’s 76% production recovery.• GVP: Rose to $566 million, driven by higher volumes and domestic demand, with the market value reaching $396 million.
• 2024–2025 (Financial Year 2025): • Volume: Forecasted to decrease to 518,000 tons, a 16.7% drop from 2024.• Context: Reduced yields (forecasted at 9.8 t/ha) and potential drier conditions due to El Niño may constrain planting. Export prices are expected to face further pressure from global supply increases, though India’s non-basmati rice export ban may provide some price support. 2.2 Yields Australian rice yields are among the highest globally, averaging 9.8–11 t/ha over the period, compared to the global average of 4–5 t/ha. Key trends include: • 2021–2022: Peak yield of 11 t/ha, driven by favourable conditions and advanced varieties like Reiziq and Sherpa.• 2023–2024: Yield stabilized at 10 t/ha, with an 8.8% increase in 2024 due to improved field management and technology adoption.• 2024–2025: Forecasted to decline slightly to 9.8 t/ha, reflecting potential water constraints and climatic variability. 2.3 Economic Contributions • Revenue Growth: Industry revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.9% from 2019–2024, reaching $268.7 million in 2024, driven by post-drought recovery and high prices.• Export Market: Exports accounted for 80–85% of production, valued at $225 million in 2022–2023, though volumes lagged the 10-year average by 34%.• Domestic Market: Domestic consumption surged 33% to 614,000 tons in 2024, reflecting cultural diversity and demand for rice-based dishes.• Challenges: Rising input costs (e.g., fertilizers due to the Ukraine conflict) and high global shipping rates (up 273% in 2020–2021) pressured margins. 2.4 Key Drivers • Water Availability: High water allocations in 2021–2023 (e.g., 100% in Murray Valley) enabled production surges, while drought years (2018–2019) saw near-zero output.• Weather Patterns: La Niña (2021–2023) supported production but caused sowing delays, while El Niño forecasts for 2024–2025 may reduce water availability.• Global Competition: California’s production constraints (down 31–41% in 2022–2023) boosted Australian prices, but its 76% recovery in 2023–2024 pressured prices downward.• Technology and Innovation: The Rice check program, laser levelling, and new varieties improved yields and water efficiency. Research into “climate-smart” dryland rice in northern NSW aims to reduce water use and emissions.
3. Future Projections (2025–2035)3.1 Production Volume Forecasts • Short-Term (2025–2026):• Production is forecasted to decline to 518,000 tons in 2025 due to lower yields (9.8 t/ha) and potential El Niño-induced water constraints.• The AgriFutures Rice Program aims to achieve a water productivity target of 1.5 t/ML by 2026, which could stabilise output if met. • Medium-Term (2026–2030):• Production is expected to stabilize at 600,000–800,000 tons annually, assuming average water allocations and continued adoption of water-efficient practices.• Deregulation of export markets from July 2025 may boost northern NSW production, particularly for dryland rice, though Riverina remains dominant. • Long-Term (2030–2035):• Market volume is projected to reach 700,000 tons by 2035, with a market value of $504 million (CAGR of 2.2% from 2024).• Growth will depend on closing yield gaps, adopting climate-smart varieties, and managing climate risks like droughts and floods. 3.2 Yield Projections • Yields are expected to remain high at 9.8–10.5 t/ha, supported by ongoing breeding programs (e.g., Rice Breeding Australia Ltd.) and precision farming.• Dryland rice varieties, developed in northern NSW, could reduce irrigation dependency, potentially stabilizing yields in water-scarce years. 3.3 Economic Outlook • Market Growth: The rice market is projected to grow steadily, driven by domestic demand (forecasted at 614,000–700,000 tons) and export opportunities in premium markets.• Price Trends: Export prices may face downward pressure (e.g., $953/ton in 2024, down 10.8%) due to global supply increases, but India’s export bans could provide support.• Deregulation Impact: Ending Sun Rice’s export monopoly in 2025 could increase competition and innovation, potentially boosting export volumes but challenging smaller growers. 3.4 Challenges and Opportunities • Challenges:• Climate Change: Increased frequency of droughts, floods, and pests may disrupt production.• Water Constraints: Dependence on irrigation makes the industry vulnerable to allocation cuts.• Input Costs: Rising fertilizer and energy costs could squeeze margins.• Opportunities:• Climate-Smart Rice: Dryland and low-carbon varieties could reduce environmental impact and appeal to eco-conscious markets.• Research Investment: The AgriFutures Rice Program and Rice Breeding Australia’s new facilities in the Riverina will enhance varietal development.• Market Diversification: Deregulation and niche products (e.g., black rice with high nutritional value) could open new export markets. 4. Conclusion Australian rice production has shown resilience over the past five years, recovering from drought to achieve strong volumes (622,000 tons in 2024) and high yields (10 t/ha). However, challenges like variable weather, global competition, and rising costs have led to fluctuations, with a forecasted decline to 518,000 tons in 2025. Looking forward, the industry is poised for steady growth, potentially reaching 700,000 tons by 2035, driven by technological advancements, deregulation, and sustainable practices. To maintain competitiveness, continued investment in research, water-efficient technologies, and climate-smart varieties will be critical. References • AgriFutures Australia, Rice Program RD&E Plan 2021–26• NSW Department of Primary Industries, Rice Production Data• Statista, Australia Rice Production Volume (2024–2025)• NSW DPI, Rice Market and Production Insights• IndexBox, Australia’s Rice Market Forecast to 2035• SunRice, About Rice Production• DAFF, Rice Farms in the Murray-Darling Basin• Statista, Australia Rice Yield (2010–2024)• IBISWorld, Rice Growing in Australia (2014–2029)• DAFF, Australian Rice Industry Overview• Australian Bureau of Statistics, Agricultural Commodities 2021–22• AgriFutures Australia, Rice Industry Overview• Southern Cross University, Climate-Smart Rice Research
